Another angle is that Trump was carried by white boomers who felt control of the nation slipping away from their generation.
Something like 7% of Trump’s 2016 voters will be dead by 2024. Trumpism itself is dead. It’s not electorally viable in 2024 with so many boomers gone and so many more Millennials and Gen Z voting.
I have a feeling GOP is going to get a very rude awakening in 2024. They’re going to get crushed in a historic feat that might destroy the party.
They thought 2018, 2020, and 2022 were “worst than expected”… They ain’t seen nothing yet. Those were just the foreshocks
I think the knee-jerk reaction is this will help him in the primary - at the very least providing a huge fundraising boost, but it’s hard to imagine this isn’t a massive blow to his chances with non-MAGA independents he needs to win the general.
Another angle is that Trump was carried by white boomers who felt control of the nation slipping away from their generation.
Something like 7% of Trump’s 2016 voters will be dead by 2024. Trumpism itself is dead. It’s not electorally viable in 2024 with so many boomers gone and so many more Millennials and Gen Z voting.
I have a feeling GOP is going to get a very rude awakening in 2024. They’re going to get crushed in a historic feat that might destroy the party.
They thought 2018, 2020, and 2022 were “worst than expected”… They ain’t seen nothing yet. Those were just the foreshocks
I’m with ya in some respects. I do think the main difference is that Democrats were pretty much asleep at the wheel in 2016 and have made up significant ground in battle ground states since that time.
It’s also a lot easier to craft a message about Trump that isn’t entirely about him being a womanizing creep. This is the guy that fucked up COVID, he’s been indicted/convicted of criminal charges, and he’s the one ultimately responsible for stripping reproductive rights away from women.
I agree - just lots of unknowns with Trump and his base. And Democrats are good at dropping the ball like in 2016, for whatever reasons (whole thread in itself).
Though not sure about COVID exactly, his record is mixed because Operation Warp Speed at least was successful. The rest was pretty disastrous, especially the public messaging.
I’m with ya in some respects. I do think the main difference is that Democrats were pretty much asleep at the wheel in 2016 and have made up significant ground in battle ground states since that time.
It’s also a lot easier to craft a message about Trump that isn’t entirely about him being a womanizing creep. This is the guy that fucked up COVID, he’s been indicted/convicted of criminal charges, and he’s the one ultimately responsible for stripping reproductive rights away from women.
I think the knee-jerk reaction is this will help him in the primary - at the very least providing a huge fundraising boost, but it’s hard to imagine this isn’t a massive blow to his chances with non-MAGA independents he needs to win the general.
I think the knee-jerk reaction is this will help him in the primary - at the very least providing a huge fundraising boost, but it’s hard to imagine this isn’t a massive blow to his chances with non-MAGA independents he needs to win the general.
I think the knee-jerk reaction is this will help him in the primary - at the very least providing a huge fundraising boost, but it’s hard to imagine this isn’t a massive blow to his chances with non-MAGA independents he needs to win the general.
I think the knee-jerk reaction is this will help him in the primary - at the very least providing a huge fundraising boost, but it’s hard to imagine this isn’t a massive blow to his chances with non-MAGA independents he needs to win the general.
They’ll cave. Trumps loyal base may be 30% of GOP voters (rather than the population), but they’re the once who turn out for primaries and elections like clockwork. The GOP can’t win without them so they can’t risk alienating them.
I think the knee-jerk reaction is this will help him in the primary - at the very least providing a huge fundraising boost, but it’s hard to imagine this isn’t a massive blow to his chances with non-MAGA independents he needs to win the general.
I mean, maybe 30% of the overall population isn’t in the tank for Trump forever and ever, but I think that’s a good estimate for the share of voters who overall approve of him and would never support Democrats.
They’ll cave. Trumps loyal base may be 30% of GOP voters (rather than the population), but they’re the once who turn out for primaries and elections like clockwork. The GOP can’t win without them so they can’t risk alienating them.
There are a lot of GOP voters who could be convinced the Democratic nominee was a communist and vote against them even if the nominee was Ronald Reagan’s clone. They’re in the tank for ANY GOP nominee, not necessarily Trump. Add the 2 groups together and you’re probably at 30%+.
I mean, maybe 30% of the overall population isn’t in the tank for Trump forever and ever, but I think that’s a good estimate for the share of voters who overall approve of him and would never support Democrats.
There are a lot of GOP voters who could be convinced the Democratic nominee was a communist and vote against them even if the nominee was Ronald Reagan’s clone. They’re in the tank for ANY GOP nominee, not necessarily Trump. Add the 2 groups together and you’re probably at 30%+.